You may have heard of the term “dropping odds”, but you’re not sure what it means and how it can influence your betting. This article gives a detailed overview of what dropping odds are, what’s behind their volatility, and what dropping odds strategy will be most helpful in terms of turning a profit in such scenarios. In short, you’ll learn why movement tracking is important.
What are dropping odds?
The concept of dropping odds is fairly self-explanatory. It means that certain odds are losing value. Let’s say you’re interested in a football match between two teams. The odds that the first team will win 15 minutes before the game starts are 4.0 or 3/1 in fractional odds. They keep dropping in the run-up to kickoff.
Why does this happen? The real question is: How can you benefit from odds movements? Often, dropping odds make the difference between good and bad value bets. They are very common in the online betting industry.
The movement can be very dynamic depending on the sport. When it comes to horseracing, you’ll find they are constantly changing in the last 10 minutes before the race. You can benefit from a good price, but if you wait a few seconds, it might be too late.
Why do prices change so often?
If you’re familiar with matched betting, you’d know this is a very popular and very profitable strategy, although it’s a bit different from the ones mentioned so far. At any rate, punters can be very confused about why odds change so much and how they can adapt their strategies to this fact.
Odds can drop for any number of reasons, ranging from a manager or jockey change to an increased betting volume. What’s more, betting odds don’t just move in one direction. They can also increase in value, which is known as odds lengthening. This can happen both before and during a game or race.
Higher betting volume
Bettors are always buying and selling into different positions on betting exchanges, just like traders and investors on the stock market. This leads to odds fluctuating. As start time approaches, this becomes obvious. Price movements become extremely dynamic. Higher betting volume can be great for professionals and serious punters who want to gain as much value as possible. Your whole betting experience is more exciting.
Odds are more stable at a bookmaker because the bookmaker sets them. Still, demand for certain odds is considered. If demand drops, they will increase the odds to make the event more attractive. Conversely, high demand will cause them to lower the odds to hedge against risk.
Different circumstances
Odds can decline or increase if circumstances change. A player may have left the club, or a new manager has been hired. New circumstances impact the odds because they impact the likely result of an event.
Those new to betting will be put off by how quickly odds change, especially on horseracing. Odds in football don’t change that fast. They are more stable in the run-up to kickoff. Still, newbies wonder when to place a wager and what happens if they pick the wrong time. Here are some strategies and tips to prevent costly mistakes.
Tips to avoid dropping odds
If you’re still a layman in betting, it’s best to avoid betting during price movements at first. Place your bets 15 minutes before an event starts and when the odds are stable. Don’t bet on horseracing markets, at least initially. This will help you avoid losses from dropping odds.
How to use dropping odds to your advantage
Inexperienced bettors would do well to avoid dropping odds. For professionals, it’s a different matter. You can use dropping odds to make a profit. At first, this might sound risky, and it is. after gaining some experience, it becomes easy to spot great value bets. The right betting strategy should help you stay ahead of the bookmaker and benefit from valuable odds to maximize your profit.
Buying and selling into different positions
You can buy and sell into various positions to take advantage of odds movements. It pays off to follow them carefully here. Movements help you analyze where you are wagering your money. Ultimately, this makes it possible to place more informed bets and make more money from betting. This dropping odds strategy requires more experience. It is less like betting than trading. It also comes with more risk than traditional betting. As we mentioned before, bad timing will put you on the wrong market side with bad odds.
Early cash-out
You can use early cash out to exploit dropping odds. This strategy makes it possible to close your bet before the event has begun. You can place a bet at odds of 4.0 two weeks before a match. In these two weeks, the best player in one of the teams sustains an injury. Then, the odds for a victory of his team might drop to 3.0. If you want, you can cash out and make a profit before the game starts. You can also wait to see if the odds will drop further for even bigger potential payout.
The odd one out
Most online bookmakers offer similar odds. If a leading bookie changes theirs, the rest of the market is quick to follow. This is one main reason odds can change so quickly. Bettors will take advantage of the ‘odd one out’ because the odds on the market are generally very similar.
Why would one bookmaker suddenly drop their odds? A leading player getting injured can be one reason. The market may have been overpriced originally. Whatever the case may be, you’ll find top value if you can jump in before all bookmakers change their odds. You should place bets with bookmakers that haven’t caught up.
You’ll also know you’ve found a good value bet if you find odds for a market that are much higher than the rest of the industry. The bookmaker either doesn’t believe the likelihood of an outcome to be different or they’ve failed to adjust their odds to fit the overall pattern.
These situations are hard to come by, so you should keep an eye out for them.
Programs to track market movement
Technological advancements have made it possible for bookmakers to track market movements with high accuracy. They allow them to adapt to price changes almost at once. That means you can use this strategy to profit from odds discrepancies rarely. Still, it can be worthwhile to have.
Beginners should avoid football dropping odds because they can make it quite hard to place bets. Moreover, they will cut into any profit you make from an accurate prediction.
